A dynamic test of the spiral of silence theory on Swiss political attitudes (2002–2014)

Abstract

The spiral of silence theory (Noelle-Neumann, 1993) posits that when a given political position becomes to be seen as representing a majority opinion, perceivers holding alternative views should progressively feel pressured to become silent, thereby contributing to the growing public decline of the minority camp. Evidence for this process, however, is mixed, partly because prior research has often neglected the dynamic dimension of this phenomenon by focusing solely on the static link between perceived opinion climate and opinion expression. The present study tests the spiral of silence theory at the national level by using longitudinal, representative survey data. Logistic regression analyses carried out on Swiss data taken from the European Social Survey (Rounds 1–7, N = 12,335) revealed that Swiss respondents with pro-immigration and pro-EU opinions were increasingly reluctant to publicly express their views (by petition, badge and demonstration) between 2002 and 2014 in contexts defined by strengthening anti-immigration and anti-EU opinion climates, respectively. Similarly, from 2002 to 2008, a spiral of silence was observed for individuals with anti-gay positions, but no such effect emerged for income inequality reduction. These findings account for the growing success, over the past decade, of anti-immigration, anti-EU and pro-gay opinions in Switzerland. The present study overcomes limitations of prior research by using a macroscopic level of analysis and a dynamic conceptualization of the normative conformity process underlying the spiral of silence phenomenon. These findings provide further evidence of the impact of dynamically changing normative contexts on the public expression of opinions.